Price of Bitcoin Surges 4.3% Before Trump’s Speech at the Bitcoin 2024 Convention
Bitcoin rose in price by 4.3% as traders expect further gains while betting on future prices. The increase comes ahead of the address by former US President Donald Trump at the Bitcoin 2024 convention in Nashville, Tennessee.
The cryptocurrency has recovered most of its losses from earlier this week and now traders are eagerly waiting for Trump to speak at the convention. “No one wants to bet against Bitcoin going into the weekend,” said Markus Thielen, who leads 10x Research, in a July 25th report.
He suggested that people may be holding off on shorting bitcoin because they think Trump might announce plans for a strategic bitcoin reserve if he wins the presidential election in November. “If Trump announced a strategic reserve, Bitcoin’s price would shoot up quickly,” Thielen added.
There are currently more bets that bitcoin will go up in price than down. A drop to $65,000 could wipe out $1.11 billion worth of bullish bets. “Trump is probably looking at the powerful crypto lobby which has raised $150 million for the Crypto Super PAC,” said Thielen.
Trump Strategic Bitcoin Plan
Bitcoin is trading at $66,985 right now and Thielen noted that while the US Treasury holds $600 billion worth of gold it has seized $15 billion worth of bitcoins so far. He speculated that Trump may discuss adjusting this balance.“Trump could hint at increasing this ratio to about 10% of the gold reserves or maybe even more” he said.
Thielen thinks even mentioning such an idea by Trump could set off a strong market reaction regardless of whether or not he wins the presidency. Bryan Courchesne, an asset manager, said using bitcoin as a reserve asset would be challenging but feasible.
Courchesne explained that DOJ could transfer seized bitcoins to treasury so they can hold this scarce asset long-term. Meanwhile, long-term bitcoin holders are showing resilience despite recent price drops.
Glassnode, a crypto analytics firm, praised bitcoin holders in their newsletter The Week Onchain. They said that this is one of the worst performing cycles for bitcoin since its last “halving” but still long term holders remain strong. Even when the price fell to $53,500 these holders did not sell.
Glassnode reported that recent selling accounted for less than 36% of all transactions while major past sell-offs saw losses exceeding 60% of transactions over several weeks. They define long term holders as those who have held bitcoins for more than 155 days.
“After 18 months of prices only going up after the FTX collapse and 3 months of sideways trading the market has seen its biggest drop of the cycle,” they said. “Still the drops in this cycle are better than in past cycles suggesting the market is pretty strong underneath.”
At its low point of $53,500 short term holders had nearly 2.8 million bitcoins (14.2% of all bitcoins) worth less than what they paid for it. Miner sell-offs are also a concern echoing patterns seen before Bitcoin’s lowest price in late 2022 warns Charles Edwards, who runs a Bitcoin investment fund said miner capitulation signs appeared in mid-May which may delay a good buying opportunity by few weeks.
Elsewhere, according to Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards in conversation with Cointelegraph, the introduction of spot Ether ETFs into a lackluster market may weigh on Bitcoin prices. New inflows to the market are absent thus creating sell pressure by diverting investor attention away from Bitcoin. He stated that there were no big short-term events which should cause significant increase in price.
While they await Donald Trump’s speech at the convention, traders and holders are positive about the future of bitcoin even though its strength is being challenged.
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